• Standard Chartered kept its $2 trillion stablecoin supply forecast but moved it to 2030 from 2028, citing stalled supply growth this year.
• Supply has stayed between $300 billion and $320 billion for 12 months and is about $309 billion now, per the bank's report as relayed by The Block.
• Usage is rising even though supply is not: average monthly velocity is about 30 times this year, up from 15 times in 2025.
• The bank's research head sees the stall as cyclical, linked to weak crypto markets, not as a structural ceiling.
• Regulation is the main risk. The GENIUS Act is due to take effect in January 2027 and could bring bank-backed and multi-issuer competition.

Standard Chartered still expects stablecoin supply to reach $2 trillion, but it now says 2030 rather than 2028. The reason, per The Block's account of the bank's October 14, 2026 report, is that supply growth has stalled this year. The delay is a timing change, not a thesis change. What matters for the market is whether the stall is cyclical, as the bank argues, or a sign that the supply-led growth story needs revising.

Supply has gone sideways while usage has not

Stablecoin supply has held between $300 billion and $320 billion over the past 12 months and sits near $309 billion, according to the report as relayed by The Block. Meanwhile, monthly on-chain transfer value averaged just under $10 trillion this year, against $4 trillion in 2025. Raw transfer value peaked at a monthly record of $19 trillion in May. Activity is growing on a flat float, which points to faster reuse of the same dollars.

Velocity explains part of the gap between supply and volume

Average monthly velocity, meaning how often each stablecoin dollar changes hands, is about 30 times this year, up from 15 times in 2025, per the report. USDT velocity stayed near 7 times, while USDC rose to about 80 times from 45. Higher velocity can reduce the issuance needed to carry a given payment volume, a point ForkLog also reported from earlier Standard Chartered research on rising turnover.

Kendrick calls the stall cyclical, which is an assertion

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, describes the supply plateau as cyclical because it coincides with weak crypto market activity. He pointed to earlier flat or falling periods that were followed by renewed growth once crypto markets recovered. That is a forecaster's reading of past patterns. The data show a flat year, not the cause, and the 2030 date is the bank's estimate.

Regulation and bank-backed rivals are the main risk

The report names regulation as a major risk to the $2 trillion call. The GENIUS Act is due to take effect in January 2027, and Kendrick said its implementation could bring more competition from bank-backed and multi-issuer stablecoins. He sees developed-market payments and traditional-finance replacement as the most contested segment, with yield capture likely to shape it. Challengers he named include Open USD, M^0 and A+, a planned multi-bank network.

What this means for operators and risk teams

For payments and treasury teams, the practical signal is that usage metrics and supply can diverge. Planning on float growth alone would have overstated demand this year, while velocity and transfer volume pointed the other way. Watch three things: the January 2027 GENIUS Act start date, whether bank-led issuers appear in payments, and whether supply moves once crypto activity recovers. The bank's call is a forecast, not a measurement.