Bernstein Cuts Coinbase, Lifts Circle on New Revenue Lines
Bernstein trimmed Coinbase's target and raised Circle's, betting on prediction markets and stablecoins over spot trading.
Bernstein's October 26 note shifts the crypto-equity thesis from price to product: it cut Coinbase's target to $250 from $330 while raising Circle's to $145, keeping Outperform on both and on Robinhood. The reported driver is prediction-market and derivatives revenue, not spot trading.
The Ledger Desk · 3 min read- Bernstein cut Coinbase's price target to $250 from $330 and now forecasts a 2026 loss of $2.60 per share, per The Block's report of the note.
- The firm expects Coinbase prediction-market and derivatives revenue of about $2 billion by 2028, up from about $600 million earlier this year.
- Robinhood's modeled 2028 prediction-market revenue of $1.7 billion slightly exceeds its modeled $1.6 billion of crypto revenue.
- Circle's target rose to $145 despite USDC supply falling to about $73 billion from $77 billion in the second quarter.
- All figures are analyst estimates ahead of third-quarter earnings, not reported results.
Bernstein used its pre-earnings note on October 26 to move the argument about crypto equities away from the price of bitcoin. According to The Block, analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia kept Outperform ratings on Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle, but redistributed the targets: Coinbase down, Robinhood unchanged, Circle up. The common thread is revenue that does not depend on a spot-trading rebound.
Coinbase: a loss forecast with a derivatives offset
Bernstein now forecasts a full-year 2026 loss of $2.60 per share at Coinbase, against a prior profit forecast of $5.97, after cutting its 2026 revenue estimate about 32% to $5.5 billion. The analysts wrote that they no longer assume any bullish crypto price action. Spot trading is expected to stagnate at $150 billion in the third quarter, leaving stablecoin revenue as the main growth driver, according to The Block's account of the note.
The offset is derivatives and prediction markets, which Bernstein expects to reach about $2 billion of Coinbase revenue by 2028, up from about $600 million earlier this year. Coinbase shares were just above $162 on Monday, down more than 31% year to date. The target moved to $250 from $330. An earlier Bernstein note, covered by The Block, had already trimmed the target before this cut.
Robinhood: event contracts carry the model
Bernstein kept Robinhood's target at $160, and its projections lean on event contracts: $1.7 billion of prediction-market revenue by 2028 against $1.6 billion from crypto. The note expects third-quarter event contract volume to rise 21% quarter over quarter to about 16.4 billion contracts, while crypto trading across Robinhood and Bitstamp recovers to about $50 billion, still 38% below the prior year's third quarter. These are analyst estimates, not reported results.
The Block also reports that Robinhood's native blockchain, launched in July, generated roughly $90 billion of third-quarter transaction volume and $50 million in fees, mostly from memecoins. That figure is reported secondhand and its quality is questionable. Robinhood shares closed Monday at $93.37, down about 17.5% year to date.
Circle: supply shrinks, the target rises
Circle's target rose to $145 from $140 even as USDC supply fell to about $73 billion from $77 billion in the second quarter. Bernstein cites Arc token presales and the reserve-yield outlook, and expects third-quarter revenue to edge up to $770 million despite lower reserve income. Arc could add transaction-fee and validator-staking revenue beyond reserve interest, a diversification the note treats as potential upside, not yet realized income.
Circle was the only one of the three positive for the year, at about $80.50, up roughly 1.5%. The market is paying for a second revenue line, not for the first one growing.
What to watch when the three report
The test is whether reported results match the mix Bernstein models. Compare Coinbase's derivatives line against the roughly $600 million baseline, Robinhood's event-contract volume against the 16.4 billion estimate, and USDC supply against the $73 billion level. If prediction-market revenue lags while spot volume stays flat, the target cuts will look like the early part of a larger reset, not a pause.
- What did Bernstein change on Coinbase?
- Bernstein cut its Coinbase price target to $250 from $330 and its 2026 revenue forecast by about 32% to $5.5 billion, while keeping an Outperform rating, according to The Block.
- Why did Bernstein raise its Circle target?
- The firm cited Arc token presales and the reserve-yield outlook, raising the target to $145 from $140 even though USDC supply fell to about $73 billion from $77 billion.
- How important are prediction markets in the note?
- They are central. Bernstein models about $2 billion of Coinbase prediction-market and derivatives revenue by 2028 and $1.7 billion of Robinhood prediction-market revenue in the same year.