x402 hits 138M agent payments, mostly under 10 cents
Chainalysis counts 138 million x402 transactions on Base, but over 87% were a dime or less, so counts say little about revenue.
Chainalysis counted more than 138 million x402 transactions on Base, but over 87% of payments fell between a hundredth of a cent and a dime, so the number measures metering activity, not merchant revenue. Chainalysis does not report take-rates or settled value, which is what payments operators need.
The Ledger Desk · 3 min read- Chainalysis reports over 138 million cumulative x402 transactions on Base by the end of a 12-month period ending July 1, 2026.
- Over 87% of x402 payments fell between a hundredth of a cent and a dime, a figure Chainalysis ties to the 16 months ending September 2026.
- U.S. wallets account for 88.1% of geolocated AI model inference payments on x402; Chinese-funded agents account for 0.1%.
- Chainalysis reports about nine in ten geolocated security and code-analysis payments came from Chinese-linked wallets, mostly flowing to AgentLISA.
- The report gives no take-rate or settled-value figure, so the transaction count does not show what the rail earns.
Chainalysis reports over 138 million x402 transactions on Base, a cumulative count through the 12 months ending July 1, 2026, according to its October 14, 2026 report and CoinDesk's coverage of it. The count is large, but ticket size is the story: over 87% of payments fell between a hundredth of a cent and a dime. For payments operators, that describes a rail used for metering, not for moving meaningful value.
Volume is not revenue
A transaction count is not revenue when most payments are tiny. Chainalysis reports that over 87% of x402 payments fell between a hundredth of a cent and a dime, a share it ties to the 16 months ending September 2026, a different window from the 138 million count. Percentage-plus-fixed-fee card pricing does not suit tickets that small. Neither Chainalysis nor CoinDesk reports merchant take-rates, so what the rail earns remains unshown.
Demand is concentrated by geography and category
Chainalysis reports that U.S. wallets account for 88.1% of geolocated AI model inference transactions on x402, and Chinese-funded agents for 0.1%. Security reverses the pattern: roughly nine in ten geolocated security and code-analysis payments came from Chinese-linked wallets, and nearly all of those flowed to AgentLISA. Chainalysis head of research Eric Jardine told CoinDesk one possible explanation is that Chinese developers are more inclined to use open-weight models such as DeepSeek and Qwen.
Wallet behavior points to repeat use
Chainalysis reports that wallets are becoming more active, using differing cohort windows. Among wallets that sent payments on two or more separate days, 89.3% of those first funded in Q2 2026 received a second funding within 30 days, versus 70.6% for those first funded in Q3 2025. Median wallet age at first x402 payment fell from 73 days in late 2025 to 18 minutes in Q3 2026, and the share paying within an hour of funding rose from 4% to 67%. Wallets active on a single day are excluded, so these figures describe repeat users only.
Why the count needs caution
Transaction counts do not separate commerce from speculation. Chainalysis says early x402 activity drew large numbers of new wallets through the memecoin PING, which then faded. CoinDesk's March 2026 reporting carried the headline that the Coinbase-backed protocol wants to fix micropayments but demand is not there yet. CoinDesk's October article likewise notes that transaction counts alone do not show genuine commercial demand. The 138 million figure is best read as protocol usage.
What to watch
The test is settled value per payer, not payment counts. Watch whether typical ticket size rises above the sub-dime range, whether spend broadens beyond inference and contract auditing, and whether repeat-funding rates hold as faddish activity fades. Payment teams weighing agent acceptance should ask for net volume by merchant category and repeat-payer share before treating x402 counts as a pricing or integration signal.
- How many x402 transactions did Chainalysis count?
- Chainalysis reports over 138 million x402 transactions on Base, a cumulative figure through the 12 months ending July 1, 2026. CoinDesk reported the findings on October 14, 2026.
- Does 138 million payments mean agent commerce is large?
- Not on its own. Chainalysis says over 87% of payments fell between a hundredth of a cent and a dime, and CoinDesk notes that transaction counts alone do not show genuine commercial demand. Neither source reports merchant revenue or take-rate.
- Where does spending on AI model inference come from?
- Chainalysis reports that U.S. wallets account for 88.1% of geolocated AI model inference transactions on x402, against 0.1% for Chinese-funded agents.