• Brent has climbed from the mid-$70s a barrel in August 2026 to about $110 in September, and could reach $150-$200 if Middle East energy-infrastructure attacks spread, per a Foreign Affairs analysis by Richard Haass and Carolyn Kissane.
• The move is independently confirmed: Trading Economics put Brent at $104.32 on September 25, 2026, up nearly 20% on the month, while EIA data cites roughly 400 million barrels of inventory drawdown this year as the driver of elevated prices.
• The $150-$200 figure is a conditional ceiling tied specifically to further attacks on infrastructure substituting for restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic, not a base-case forecast — oil already spiked above $125 in April 2026 before easing back to the $80s-$90s.
• Because their currencies are pegged to the dollar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman all raised policy rates within a day of the Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026 hike; Kuwait was the exception, its dinar tracking a currency basket instead.
• That peg mechanism means Gulf bank funding costs move on the Fed's calendar regardless of local credit demand or oil revenue — a structural bind an oil windfall does not offset.

Oil has already moved from the mid-$70s a barrel in August 2026 to roughly $110 in September, and could reach $150-$200 if further attacks hit Middle East energy infrastructure, according to a Foreign Affairs analysis by Richard Haass, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Carolyn Kissane, an NYU energy and global-affairs specialist. Independent market data confirms the move is real, not rhetorical: Trading Economics put Brent at $104.32 a barrel on September 25, 2026, up nearly 20% on the month, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook cites roughly 400 million barrels of inventory drawdown this year as the driver of persistently elevated prices. But the transmission channel that matters most for Gulf banks isn't the oil price itself — it's the dollar peg, which forced the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman to raise policy rates within a day of the Federal Reserve's September 16 hike, regardless of their own credit conditions.

The price move is real and has already round-tripped once this year

Haass and Kissane's own account shows this is the second leg of a run-up, not a first-time spike: Brent rose from just over $70 a barrel before the war to more than $125 in April 2026, eased back to the $80s and $90s, then climbed again from the mid-$70s in August to about $110 in September. The $150-$200 figure is the ceiling they attach to a specific condition — further attacks on infrastructure currently substituting for restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic — not a base-case forecast the authors present as likely absent that trigger.

Gulf banks import Fed policy through the peg — proven again this month

Most GCC currencies are pegged to the US dollar specifically to prevent capital-flow pressure from rate gaps with Washington, and the mechanism showed itself again on September 16-17, 2026: hours after the Fed raised its benchmark rate 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the UAE lifted its overnight deposit rate to 3.90%, Saudi Arabia its repo rate to 4.50%, Bahrain its deposit rate to 4.50%, Qatar its repo rate to 4.35%, and Oman its repo rate to 4.50%. Kuwait was the exception, holding at 3.50% because its dinar tracks a currency basket rather than the dollar directly.

Why an oil windfall doesn't neutralize the mechanism

The structural point is that Gulf bank funding costs move with the Fed's calendar, not the region's own credit cycle or oil receipts — whichever direction the Fed moves in response to a recession-inducing oil shock, GCC central banks are bound by the peg to follow, since higher oil revenue for sovereigns doesn't change the arithmetic for commercial-bank deposit and lending rates set in lockstep with Washington. That leaves Gulf lenders exposed to imported monetary tightening even in years when the region's own energy earnings are rising, a bind the September rate moves illustrate directly rather than hypothetically.

What to watch

The trigger Haass and Kissane specify is further attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure that has been substituting for restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic — not generalized regional tension — so facility-outage and shipping-incident reports tied to the Iran standoff are the leading indicator, not the spot price alone. On the banking side, the next Federal Reserve decision and the GCC central banks' response within it, as on September 16-17, is the concrete signal for Gulf bank funding costs, regardless of where oil settles.