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Robinhood says bitcoin, gold event contracts lead growth

Robinhood says bitcoin, gold event contracts lead growth

A Robinhood executive calls bitcoin, oil and gold price contracts its fastest-growing prediction products. No volume figures were disclosed.

Robinhood says its prediction-market growth is shifting from sports to price contracts, but the evidence is one executive's remarks. JB Mackenzie called bitcoin, oil and gold contracts the fastest growing, while sports stays largest. Robinhood Derivatives routes event contracts through Kalshi, ForecastEX or Rothera, and no volumes were disclosed.

The Ledger Desk · 3 min read

Robinhood says its prediction-market customers are moving beyond sports. According to CoinDesk's report from the NEXTPredict conference, JB Mackenzie, the company's vice president and general manager for futures and prediction markets, called price-volatility contracts on bitcoin, crude oil and gold the fastest-growing products it offers. Sports is still the largest category. No bitcoin or gold volume figures accompanied the claim, so the shift rests on management's description, not disclosed data.

What the contracts are

A bitcoin event contract asks a narrow question: will the asset trade above a set price at a set time. CoinDesk notes this lets a trader take a position without owning bitcoin. Gold and oil contracts follow the same logic. The product is a payoff tied to a price, not custody of the underlying asset, so it behaves more like a short-dated option than like crypto trading, which matters for how the risk is read.

Settlement windows are shortening

Crypto contracts at Robinhood have shortened from a week to a day to 15 minutes, according to Mackenzie as quoted by CoinDesk. He compared them to zero-day options, noting both can produce rapid losses, though their structures differ. The report gives no data on trading frequency or customer losses, so any effect on activity per customer or on regulatory scrutiny is an open question, not a reported result.

Why financial contracts matter

Sports contracts face legal challenges from state gambling regulators, CoinDesk reports. Financial contracts reference prices and rate decisions instead. CoinDesk says the Federal Reserve's rate decision was Robinhood's largest event contract in September. A product line anchored in macro and crypto prices may be less exposed to a state-by-state sports dispute, though the report does not quantify that exposure.

Who runs the exchange underneath

CoinDesk says Robinhood entered prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi. Robinhood's June 4, 2026 disclosures say event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives through KalshiEX, ForecastEX or Rothera Exchange and Clearing, the last a joint venture managed by Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group. The venue behind a given contract therefore varies, and the CoinDesk report does not say which one lists the bitcoin or gold products.

What to watch next

The open questions are measurable. Robinhood has not broken out bitcoin or gold contract volume in the reporting reviewed here. Watch its next quarterly release for event-contract volume by category, and for any regulator response to 15-minute crypto contracts. Mackenzie also said users who start with event contracts often move into stocks, crypto, futures and options, and that Robinhood has 11 businesses each earning over $100 million a year, with prediction markets potentially the fastest-growing.

Which Robinhood prediction markets are growing fastest?
Robinhood's JB Mackenzie said price-volatility contracts on bitcoin, crude oil and gold are the fastest-growing products, according to CoinDesk. Sports remains the largest category.
Has Robinhood disclosed volumes for bitcoin and gold contracts?
Not in the CoinDesk report, which describes the growth qualitatively and gives no volume or revenue figure for bitcoin or gold contracts.
Which exchanges sit behind Robinhood's event contracts?
Robinhood's June 4, 2026 disclosures say event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives through KalshiEX, ForecastEX or Rothera Exchange and Clearing. Rothera is a joint venture managed by Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group.
  1. Robinhood sees surge in bitcoin, gold prediction markets as traders move beyond sports — CoinDesk
  2. The World Cup is now trading on Robinhood and Rothera — Robinhood Markets, Inc. (newsroom)