• Galaxy Research says bitcoin's bear market ended in June, according to The Block's report on Monday, October 26, 2026.
• Galaxy's supporting evidence is slower selling by wallets dormant for five years or more: about 34,000 BTC a month in 2026, against 47,000 in 2025 and 67,000 in 2024.
• Bitcoin traded above $80,000 on October 26, roughly 36% below its roughly $126,000 record from October 2025.
• Galaxy says its view is challenged if bitcoin closes a week below its 50-week moving average of $76,540 and fails to recover within a month.
• K33 Research, writing in December 2025, expected sell-side pressure to approach saturation, which gives a second analyst's support for the supply-exhaustion thesis. K33 did not call the end of a bear market.

Galaxy Research says bitcoin's bear market ended in June, and that selling by long-term holders has faded enough to make this an attractive time to buy and hold. The report was written by Alex Thorn and shared with The Block on October 26, 2026. It is a research house's view, not a market consensus. The mechanism it points to is supply: the investors who sold into the cycle appear to be running out of coins to sell.

What the holder data shows

The core evidence is a decline in movement by the oldest coins. Per The Block's account of the report, wallets untouched for at least five years moved an average of 34,000 BTC a month in 2026, down from 47,000 in 2025 and 67,000 in 2024. About 1.11 million BTC in that group has moved since October 2024, and ETFs and public treasury companies absorbed much of it.

Where price stands against the call

Price has not fully confirmed the thesis. Bitcoin traded above $80,000 on October 26, down 0.2% over 24 hours and about 36% below its record of around $126,000 set in October 2025, according to The Block. It closed above its 50-week moving average for five straight weeks through October 18, after 44 consecutive weeks below it. That is a recovery signal, not a full reversal.

A second analyst saw saturation coming

The supply-exhaustion argument predates Galaxy's call. In a December 2025 report, covered by Cryptonews, K33 Research head of research Vetle Lunde said about 20% of bitcoin's supply had been reactivated over two years and that he expected onchain sell-side pressure to approach saturation. K33 did not declare a bear market over. The overlap is in the supply thesis, not in the timing.

What would prove the call wrong

Galaxy set its own test. Thorn said the bullish view could be challenged if bitcoin closes a week below its 50-week moving average, put at $76,540, and fails to recover within a month. That puts the invalidation level less than 5% below Monday's price, so the call can be tested in weeks. The report also lists AI-assisted hacking and quantum computing as risks, and says neither currently weakens bitcoin's cryptography.

What this means for compliance and treasury teams

For firms that treat crypto as infrastructure, the practical point is to separate the research claim from the position. A house call that the bottom is in is an input to risk models, not a hedge. The second-order effect is custody and ETF concentration: if treasury companies and ETFs absorbed the supply that long-term holders released, those vehicles now hold the concentration risk. Watch the 50-week average and ETF flow data next.